Is your HOA becoming obsolete?

The Wall Street Journal published a report by Laura Kusisto and Cassidy Araiza, “OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes?” (Nov. 23, 2019, only Available to WSJ subscribers).

This lengthy report warns of a drop in Gen Xers who are not expected to seek retirement homes, even adult active communities, and specifically speaks about Sun City among others. While not to be confused with Sun City West or Sun City Grand, the report broadly addresses the outlook of the “replacement” home buyers when the baby-boomers die off in the next 20 -30 years.

But the same demographics that propelled Sun City’s rise now pose an existential challenge to this suburb as baby boomers age. More than a third of Sun City’s homes are expected to turn over by 2027 as seniors die, move in with their children or migrate to assisted living facilities, according to Zillow. Nearly two thirds of the homes will turn over by 2037.

One in eight owner-occupied homes in the U.S., or roughly nine million residences, are set to hit the market from 2017 through 2027 as the baby boomers start to die in larger numbers.

The reporters add an explanation of what may lie ahead for members of retirement HOAs.

One problem is that the bulk of the supply won’t necessarily be in places where these new buyers want to live. Gen Xers and the younger millennials have shown thus far they would rather be in cities or suburbs in major metropolitan areas. They have little interest in migrating to planned, age-restricted retirement enclaves in sunnier corners of the U.S. lined with golf courses, community centers and man-made lakes.

The report continues by describing the steps taken by the Sun City HOAs to lessen the effect of this anticipated event. They include:

• • [reinventing] reinvent themselves by lifting age restrictions and adding amenities like playgrounds and schools in an effort to appeal to Gen Xers or millennials;
  • The development even has a “next generation” club for people like herself who are under 70 years old. “Their main export industry is selling homes to [older] people who are coming from more expensive parts of the country”
  • “Just the things that people who are 20 years younger take for granted that they’ll have,”
  • But some in Sun City are making adjustments they hope will be attractive to the next generation. the Sun City Home Owners Association, is posting pictures and videos of the community on Instagram and Twitter. She noted that local recreation centers now have Wi-Fi.
  • Sun City . . . is constantly remodeling and putting in upgrades like automatically opening doors and data ports.